GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD rose strongly to as high as 1.6692 last week but reversed ahead of 1.6740 resistance. In any case, a short term top is formed at 1.6692 and initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 1.6646 minor resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.5706 to 1.6692 at 1.6083 and break there will bring retest of 1.5706 low next. On the upside, however, above 1.6446 will turn intraday bias neutral again and will put focus back to 1.6740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.5706 was strong, it was still limited below 1.6740 resistance and hence, we'd continue to prefer the bearish case. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the long term down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Break of 1.5706 will affirm this case and target a retest of 1.3503 low in medium term. However, not that break of 1.6740 resistance will confirm that fall from 1.7043 has completed with three waves down to 1.5706 already. The three wave structure will indicate that it's merely a correction to medium term rebound from 1.3503 only. In other words, another high above 1.7043 should be seen before GBP/USD tops out. MORE